The effect of those is unpredictable. Covid, for example, is becoming something we might just have to learn to live with. We can’t live in confinement forever. There will be new variants but, as long as we are not dropping like flies, I expect most countries to give up imposing strict restrictions. We can only play this game for a certain amount of time before our priorities change and suddenly covid is no longer the most important thing going on. People are tired of covid. Regarding Ukraine etc, I hope they’ll sort it out amicably through dialogue. As long Xi Jinping doesn’t do anything funny like, say, try to invade Taiwan, we should be golden.
Nobody knows what will happen. What I was trying to convey is: there is potential for things to go south, but also potential for things to be steered back to “normal”, whatever that means today.