The nuke deal with Iran

Breaking this one down, I see 3 choices for the USA.

1 . Go to war with Iran, to prevent them from getting nukes. I don’t like this option. They are still pissed at us over that whole Shah thing.

2 Do nothing, until Israel nukes Iran while they still have a good edge. Officially Israel is a non nuclear power, but everyone knows that’s bullshit.

3 Or make an Obama type of agreement where we take a gamble that economic and trade incentives will persuade the Iranians not to sneaky build nukes.

Maybe there is a 4th option, but I can’t think of one.

A business deal: we sell to you Thorium based energy production plants,
and you dump those other enriched uranium plants of yours (because byproducts may have a military use).
Then Iranians will get short of excuses for developing atomic power the other way and the US will have a business deal :stuck_out_tongue:

PS: “make love not war” is sometimes impractical, but “make business, not war” is doable :smiley:

Does the USA have any commercial thorium plants?

Building one for the Iranians might be a stretch for USA tech wise. We haven’t even made a regular uranium nuke plant in many decades . Thorium is doable in theory, but not proven commercially in the USA.

yet another reason to hurry a good budget for the Departement Of Energy!:wink:
It will help cooling the climate and cooling some hot topics.

You are likely right eventually

I like reading random science stories, so I have been following thorium for years. IMHO, it’s sort of like solar panels. Neat idea but way to expensive 30 years ago. Now my roof is covered in panels. Thorium might be big in 10-30 years. We would need a big player like GE to build some thorium electric plants in the USA, before we could get them to make a bid on doing a job in Iran.

So, in general, I agree with your idea that we should fund research in this better. Not so sure I agree with cooling hot tropics though. I went a long way to get away from the cold. I wish I could live long enough to see rising sea levels flood my yard, but I doubt I will. I don’t think it’s the warming or CO2 that will cause problems. Higher CO2 and warming will help rain forests, and move the tree line up, increasing habitat . Whoever owns my property in 100 years will almost surely be a hard core diver. The yard is 3’ above current high tide, and floods during some hurricanes already. Sea rise will be the big issue.

The military-industrial complex makes a lot more money from war than they will from business where nobody is blowing anybody else up. They will resist it.

Like they seem to resist the current Iran deal…

FTL, by the time the sea starts lapping at your door, aren’t we supposed to be losing thousands more species, and habitats, and having other global biological changes that could be extremely destructive?

BTW, you left out option #5: Nuke Iran from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure. :slight_smile:
It seems to me the current deal is a lot better than no deal. Others complain for a better deal, but I haven’t heard anything constructive on that. Like "Repeal Obamacare and replace it with, uh, “something”. And how would going to war be a solution? Hopefully we learned something from Iran and Afghanistan. Wars hopefully end (sorry, military-industrial complex), and then what? They pick up where they left off.

How about picking up Israel and moving it to someplace with more friendly neighbors? I wonder how hard that would be? :thinking:

Yeah, the space nuke makes no sense

The reason the USA pays Russia to send cargo to the space station is that Russians have a lot of extra rockets they will lease cheapish.

These surplus rockets were built to send us nukes Fed ex next hour delivery. There is no tech advantage to dropping a nuke from space, it would take longer to get there.

I have also had people tell me the answer is “inspection and verification”. The trouble with that is Iran is an ancient remnant of Persia country , with under ground mines thousands of years old. 80 million people that speak dozens of rare languages that USA people don’t understand. Many remote locations scattered over an area more than twice as large as Texas.

Let’s say we want to ban pot growing in Texas, as we have already done. Let’s say every Texan agrees to an instant kick down the door search right. Than let’s say everyone in Texas was armed with AK’s , spoke a different language, believed the US feds were Allah less and thus would not talk to us.

How many troops and at what cost would it take to search every ranch house in Texas? Now multiply that answer by 2.4 times the area of Texas and you may start to see the problem with searching Iran.

Whether its Iran or N.Korea, they aren’t gonna stop.
Unfortunately I think it’s just a matter of time before nukes get into crazy people’s hands and some terrible stuff happens.

The only fix is to invent a new technology that disables nukes!
defense > offense!

My biggest fear is “guess”

Like, when the towers went down in NYC, we “guessed” it was Bin Ladin. Then we invaded Afghanistan, guessing he was there. Then we invaded Iraq, guessing Sadam had something to do with it. To this day many Americans will say Sadam was in on 9/11. At best a weak guess.

My fear is a nutjob in say, Israel, will nuke a USA city, realizing the USA will than play “guess”. On the assumption we will pick Iran. The USA has to blame someone.

In truth, if I was Ayatollah, I would want to make it clear Iran had no nukes. I would try to portray my country as a sort of Islamic Sweden.

It doesn’t take Einstein to realize that if a nuke goes off in Russia or the USA, they are going to play “guess”. Loth to blame China or each other, my best guess is they will nuke Iran, North Korea, or both, in retaliation. With the best intel of course. Of the same quality that led the US to invade Iraq. In truth, many countries may have some loose nukes that could make it to a black market. Reagan, to his credit, did realize that not every ww2 idea was good, and USSR and USA supposedly destroyed most of these small nukes by agreement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2RO6lo84Hc

Any clue how many Iranian persons, that are like you and me, still are able to get new iPhones?

It’s off-topic, but yes, when we talk of 97% of scientists agree (bla, etc), then we’re not talking scientific replicable facts but simply about a survey of opinions.
But back to Iran: with so much deserts and so much sun I probably would prefer “clean” solar power over “dirty” nuclier power.

This movie truly happened Off Screen (2005) - IMDb
Now with Philips claiming not being involved in military weapons, then guess what was going on. When the hostage-taker sticked “Philips lies” on the windows, then it wasn’t about wide-screen TV’s. Even the spokesman of the police couldn’t lie that very convincing. I know one military S.W.A.T. squad member who worked there that day, who had no idea that Vinton Cerf at that moment was working on the very same floor as Philips (who for 250 years always were seated in Eindhoven, in stead of Amsterdam), and same floor as the event. The hostage taker could see the towers every day from his kitchen and garden - no doubt he knew where to be. In advance of all of this Vinton Cerf admitted he then and there was building what you just described. Only NASA, maybe ESA, but AFAIK no Russians involved (except for those spying on it, on the Echelon-project a few streets away, and militairy operations in Yugoslavia). So long story short; it’s already there for many years.

Yes, that’s what I thought also. But about the thousands of nuclier weapens that the US has stored in many countries. Although technical on soil declared being U.S.A. (such that the mare still can claim there are no nuclier weapons in town). Fact is, there is numerous of almost-disasters world wide. And the Reagon/Gorbatsjov deal is actually preventing a cleanup.
But have a look at below video. Is that the kind of crazy people / terrible stuff …?

And the frequency of these kind messages is almost annual, in particular Los Alamos.

Neither does it take much Intel™ for the 3 to see the Sony hack was a phoney hack, opposite to the Stux payload vira, which had clearer traces. There is much export among the 3. As Iran seems selling oil to the 2, and there is not many other countries able to buy, then that’s IMHO a good reason to not go to war with your few allies.

There’s a very old joke during the “space race to the moon” that Russia was reluctant to send its cosmonauts there for fear they’d defect. :slight_smile: