Let's play "economic predictions"

Off-topic
1

I correctly called the bottom for Intel and BP stocks, on the forum. Excellent calls. But I also said to sell gold, when it was 800 $/oz. Not so good, I predicted it’s value would follow other commodities like aluminum and copper, but it didn’t.

I was reading the USA debt thread, when I wanted to start a new one. That thread is 5 years old. The debt is now 14 T, and no serious action is being taken. What are your predictions ?

Hyper inflation would reduce the gov debt, and also make all the banks, propped up by the bail out, so they could keep holding all that “toxic” real estate, smell like a rose. Nothing is better in hyper inflation than gold and real estate. Do smart people smell this ? Is gold going up a bit ahead of real estate ?, or are just to many people watching Glen Beck (gold line sponsored). In that case, gold should drop in line with other commodities.

I am not assuming we will have USA hyper inflation. Japan had a massive real estate bubble, also with big gov debt. It did not result in hyper inflation, but rather in the “lost decade”. Stagnation and falling real estate values. Lack of investment, unemployment, and a declining role in the world economy. Not so much inflation.

So I will start. My prediction is that buying houses in say Fort Myers, FL. for less than 50 K, that would cost 250 K to build today, will pay off big in a few years. That is why the banks are not selling them. They foreclose, then hold onto them, waiting, as if they are smart. We paid tax $ to them to keep banks solvent, so they can hold onto all these toxic properties. All the banks need now, and what the USA gov needs now, is some serious inflation. Will it come?
The gold buggers are saying yes, the real estate sellers in Fort Myers aren’t feeling it yet.

http://www.trulia.com/property/3032183851-353-Fairfax-Dr-Fort-Myers-FL-33905

2

I predict that many people will be unhappy with the economy and perhaps even complain about it. Those who are invested in unicycle futures are somewhat less likely to do so.

3

Gasoline will cost $5/gal by the end of Summer 2011.

4

Intel and BP aren’t going to make you a lot of money.

I bought RVBD last year at just under 20, got out at 40 earlier this month.

I made 150% on EEE in just over two weeks in January this year. Could’ve done 250-400% if my timing was better.

There’s lots of money to be made in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology right now. You just have to know where to look :wink:

You think you’ve got some excellent calls? Put that $27k in the market and you can make your money a lot quicker… especially if you play with companies a lot smaller than Intel or BP.

5

Just for example, percentages are based on today’s price vs. average target prices…

Progress Software Corporation (NASDAQ:PRGS) >1000%
Media General, Inc. (NYSE:MEG) >500%
Alexza Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXA) >350%
Cytokinetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CYTK) >300%
MELA Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELA) >300%
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PPHM) >250%
Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX) >250%
The Princeton Review, Inc (NASDAQ:REVU) >250%
LECG Corporation (NASDAQ:XPRT) 250%

6

Let’s play the quiet game.

Go!

7

Terrible advice. Don’t you want to make more money?

The “quiet game” AKA stuffing your cash in your mattress is a losing proposition. That cash will diminish in value as inflation continues to grow.

At the very least you should look at investing in an index fund. The DJIA, et. al., grows over the long term at a rate that should keep ahead of inflation.

8

Usually when there are major crises in the world like what we have now, people flee to safety, and in the past that has been the dollar. However, today, the dollar is falling, showing that the dollar no longer has the confidence it once had from the financial markets.

WTSHTF, you’re best to be invested in what you need every day for basic survival. Food, water, energy, etc. The downside to investing in these will be that the government(s) will impose price controls on them… which will only cause more economic problems.

ftl, gold is good, but: silver > gold

9

WTF?

(actually, I figured it out myself but couldn’t resist posting anyway. I certainly won’t be able to contribute anything meaningful to this particular thread – it’s too “grown up” for me)

10

I think Gilby is an economic pessimist, and if the dollar drops much lower, he plans to turn off all his fans.

I can’t really debate Maestro’s stock picks, as I don’t have any at the moment and I don’t understand his well enough to comment. 5 $ gas seems like a reasonable call.

Gilby, assuming you are calling for inflation, how much, and how soon ?
Gold seems questionable to me now, at about 1200 $/oz. Steel, copper and aluminum have all been climbing lately, but will gold follow ? It didn’t follow them down in the commodities crash, and India and China are still growing at about 7 % GDP/ yr. I think they are driving the rise of industrial commodities more than the west.

Assuming Gilby’s right and we get a brown fan economy, his silver call seems more practical than gold. Let’s say I want to barter for a bag of beans, of what use is a gold coin ? Like a 100 $ bill at a gumball machine. Bags of cheap worn silver coins, would be more useful.

11

$5 gas per gallon?
Did the maths, that’s roughly half what we’re paying here, with it currently costing around $9.6 per gallon…
Am I missing something? why is it so expensive in the UK?

12

My dad complains about this all the time :stuck_out_tongue:

It’s because there’s so much tax on it over here, because the governments shit and they need to pay off their debts somehow.

The raw price of fuel is still like under 50p a litre i think…

13

2 reasons

2 reasons… You have none… and your government doesn’t have the balls to KILL for it.

14

Is there some reason you like DJIA better than an S&P Index 500 fund like Vanguard?

15

The USA gives $$ to middle east nations AND invests in oil wars, which the USA taxpayer pays for. If these oil war taxes were included by adding it into the price per gallon we pay at the pump, the USA taxpayer pays much more per gallon than just the price at the pump.

16

that is a really good point. but forget for a second all the money invested, and think of all the blood and lost lives invested. it’s sad.

17

Does a high cost military get the USA cheaper oil ?

I have heard this stated so often that it is sorta a factoid. Something dealt with as a truth, because it is so often stated. I’m not buying it. The USA buys it’s oil on the world market. There is no discount given there for having the most air craft carriers. Gas costs about the same in Canada as the USA, even less in Mexico (socialist owned Pemex gas is cheap). The higher fuel costs in other countries seems to be from higher transport costs, or taxes. The USA produces a large % of it’s fuel from USA wells, has an excellent low cost pipeline distribution system , and lower fuel tax than most Euro countries. We don’t hold a gun to someone’s head to get oil delivered cheaper here.

18

Invests? That term should be restricted to wealth creation, not the death and destruction that is war.

USA consumption: 18.8 million barrels/day
USA production: 7.3 million barrels/day
USA exports: 2 million barrels/day

Our top oil import sources:
Canada imports: 2.5 million barrels/day
Mexico imports: 1.2 million barrels/day

I think we hold a gun to Canada’s head and make them send us oil only to turn around and sell it back to them at a profit. :stuck_out_tongue: The US must just want them at the top of the imported oil list. :roll_eyes:

19

Gilby’s numbers for oil seem about right

I thought USA tapped more oil locally, but I was wrong.

I still believe the USA pays world price for oil. In the old days of “banana republics”, the USA was a colonist power, to good economic advantage. Gun boat diplomacy and cheap fruit was a policy.

Today, oil is sold on spot markets, to international buyers. Exxon will sell to the Chinese, India, anyone, for about the same price they sell to the USA, after factoring in transport cost.

20

Economic prediction, Nuke power is near finished

The Japs, (most famous for making complex stuff work), have 3, or is it 4, Nukes maybe melting down.

If it was the Haitians, or even a ****stan type place, perhaps this would be forgivable. In this case, I doubt it. It’s the Japs.

Sell your nuke stocks yesterday. This type of reactor will not be made anymore. They are not insurable. Even Japs can’t make them work safely.