Gizmoducks Law of the Wheel

This still needs some refinement, but basically:

p= [dc/hL]e

Where:
p=number of punctures
d=distance from home
h=hours of daylight
c=distance from civilisation
L=Cellphone coverage
e=Co-efficient of the number of times you have to pump up a slow leaky tyre

Hmm…

Now divide that by:
f = condition of your flat repair kit
= s r d

where:
s = number of patches remaining
r = quantity of rubber cement available
d = fraction of rubber cement that is try in the tube

There should also be a term for bringing a pump with the incorrect head, or a tire inflator with too few cartridges. And probably an additional impatience factor (to account for making mistakes because you are trying to patch the tire too fast), which is a function of your variables d and h.

So now we have:
p = ( d c e ) / ( h L s r d)

A similar equation could be developed for loose cranks. Not as much of a problem in these days of splined, but back in the day they reduced many a ride to hikes!

The far far reaches of hyperbolic beanplating.